U.S. Energy Stress

Methodology

The ratings on this page are Blackest Swan's assessments. The underlying figures are reported by the EIA and NERC and are shown as published. Each component receives its own assessment on a four-level scale. The overall rating is the highest rating among the rated components, and the card names the component that set it. A single stressed component is not averaged away by healthy ones.

• Normal. Within its usual seasonal range.
• Watch. Moving in a direction worth attention.
• Elevated. Outside its usual range; consequences are plausible.
• High. Well outside its usual range; consequences are likely or under way.

Natural gas storage and distillate inventories

Each week's level is compared with the same week of the year in the prior five years, the convention the EIA uses in its own reports. Only shortfalls count as stress; a surplus is rated Normal.

• Watch. More than 10% below the five-year average for that week.
• Elevated. Below the five-year minimum for that week.
• High. More than 10% below the five-year minimum for that week.

A rating changes only after two consecutive weekly reports agree, so one unusual week does not move it. Gas is rated on Lower 48 storage and distillates on total U.S. stocks. Days of supply and East Coast stocks are shown as context and do not set the rating.

These thresholds were tested against weekly history before going live: distillates from 2000 and gas from late 2016, the earliest dates the available data allows. On U.S. distillate stocks the High rating appeared in only three years, most of it during the 2022 diesel shortage, and the glut of 2020 rated Normal throughout. On gas, the rule flagged 2018, when storage entered winter at multi-year lows. The gas history is too short to test the winter of 2013–14.

Regional concentration

Where stress is concentrated in particular regions rather than spread nationally, the page says so. It is noted when East Coast distillate stocks sit further below their five-year minimum than national stocks do, and when gas storage in any region is more than 10% below its five-year average.

Regional electricity adequacy

This component is updated by hand after an editorial review of each NERC seasonal reliability assessment, and it is rated on how widespread the risk is.

• Normal. No assessment areas identified at elevated or high risk.
• Watch. Some areas at elevated risk of shortfall in extreme conditions.
• Elevated. Most areas at elevated risk in extreme conditions, or any area at high risk.
• High. Any area at risk of shortfall in normal peak conditions.

Until an assessment has been reviewed, this component is shown as not yet rated and the overall rating reflects the two fuel components.

Sources and schedule

• EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
• EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
• NERC Summer and Winter Reliability Assessments

Gas storage normally updates Thursday and distillates Wednesday, with holiday exceptions. The grid outlook updates with each seasonal assessment. Data is checked daily and the overall rating is recalculated whenever a component changes.