Risk Monitor
A short list of things worth watching.
Four indicators, each showing its reading, its direction, and the date it was observed. Figures are reported by the named source; ratings marked "Blackest Swan assessment" are our own.
U.S. Energy Stress
Blackest Swan assessment
Elevated
overall rating
Driven by distillate inventories
Week ending Oct 30, 2026View details →
U.S. Drought Extent
Reported by the U.S. Drought Monitor
23.0%
of the contiguous U.S. in severe drought or worse (D2–D4)
−8.5 percentage points over four weeks
Through Nov 3, 2026View details →
Global Food Prices
Reported by the FAO
133.9
FAO Food Price Index (2014–2016 = 100)
+5.9% from a year earlier
down 1.3% from September
Oct 2026View details →
Global Supply-Chain Pressure
Reported by the New York Fed
+1.26
standard deviations from the historical average
Above average, easing
Down from +1.36 in September
Oct 2026View details →
Latest changes
U.S. Drought Extent 23.0% of the contiguous U.S. in severe drought or worse, −8.5 points over four weeks.
Global Food Prices FAO Food Price Index at 133.9, +5.9% from a year earlier.
Global Supply-Chain Pressure Index at +1.26, from +1.36 in September.
U.S. Energy Stress Natural gas storage rates Normal and distillate inventories Elevated.
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